xOG At The Olympics, Vol. I, No. V

The fifth edition of the xOG Olympics newsletter is here to hype you up for the gold medal game, where the USWNT will face off against Brazil in Paris on Saturday (Kickoff at 11am ET / 8am PT). These teams know each other well, having faced each other in the 2004 and 2008 gold medal matches, and recently in the CONCACAF W Gold Cup final back in March. Which numbers could tell us something about how the US will do against the South American titans?

201

First, a sentimental figure. Brazilian captain Marta, who turned 38 in February, announced that she would retire from international soccer after the conclusion of the Olympics. Marta may very well be the GOAT of the sport, having won six FIFA World Player of the Year trophies and multiple league titles in the US and Sweden. She missed both the quarterfinal and semifinal due to a red card suspension from her high boot to Olga Carmona’s face in the last game of the group stage. But she returns to try and claim Brazil’s first world title, in what will be her 201st and final appearance for the Seleção. If you can take the time to watch this short doc on her career and relationship with the Brazilian Football Federation, take it.

67.5%

The US has been second only to Spain in their success rate on breaking opposition lines with their passing and dribbling, punching through 73% of the time. They only managed to break Germany’s lines on 67.5% of their attempts in the semifinal, their worst game of the tournament by that metric. Was it total exhaustion, fueled by the 90-degree heat in Lyon, playing their fifth game in 13 days, their second 120-minute contest in a row, and head coach Emma Hayes’s lack of rotation and early substitutions? Or was it a genuinely concerning lack of incision? Whatever the reason for their semifinal showing, the US took a big step backward in attack. They have an extra day of rest and a fairly quick trip back to Paris for the gold medal game. With any luck, that extra rest will result in some added sharpness in their attacking efficiency.

52.1

Girma Corner gets more and more ridiculous with each passing game. The US center back didn’t cover quite as much ground in the semifinal as she did against Japan, but this is still absurd.

More crucially, it’s what Naomi Girma did with that space that astonished. After you adjust defensive stats for the volume of possession the US have had at the Olympics, Girma has been effectively producing about 27 defensive interventions per 96 minutes. A defensive intervention includes, according to the categories found in FIFA’s match reports:

• A “Possession Regain”, aka a turnover (winning the ball via tackle, interception, or loose ball recovery via ground or aerial duel)

• A “Possession Interruption” (forcing a dispossession by tackle, interception, blocked pass, or a duel for a loose ball, but not getting a full turnover out of it)

• “Direct Pressure” (pressuring the opposing player with the ball in order to regain possession)

• “Indirect Pressure” (pressuring the opposing player with the ball to force them into a less desirable area of the field)

• “Pushing On” (pressuring an opposing player without the ball to force a worse outcome)

Girma blew past her tournament average by making 52.1 possession-adjusted defensive interventions against Germany. Normalizing that to a per-96-minutes level still brings it to 38.5 interventions, well north of her average. Emily Sonnett produced 31.6 and Tierna Davidson managed 19.9 once we per-96 their possession-adjusted defending in the semifinal. The entire US back line has been performing at extraordinary levels, but Girma remains a cut above.

6

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Hope to see you all tomorrow!

Best,

Evan & Eric