xOG at The Olympics, Vol. I, No. IV

The fourth edition of the xOG Olympics newsletter is still in recovery from a wearying quarterfinal round that saw three of the four matches go to extra time. Two of those went to penalties. Spain-Colombia lasted three hours and five minutes from first whistle to final penalty kick. What is this, Major League Baseball??
 
Here are the key numbers from the US’s extra-time victory over Japan, and what they might portend for the semifinal rematch against Germany:

77%

You’ve probably heard about the insane passing numbers coming out of the US defense on Saturday. Indeed, the side completed 948 out of an astonishing 1052 pass attempts. What takes the bloom off the rose a bit is how many of those passes were sideways or backward. American defenders (along with defensive midfielder Korbin Albert) attempted 137 forward passes that tried to break the Japanese lines and generate good progression opportunities. The trouble is that 106 of them—the aforementioned 77%—tried to break the forward line and get between the forwards and the midfielders, or between the midfielders and defenders when Japan shaped their defense into two units in a low block. Rare were the moments when Albert, Naomi Girma, Emily Sonnett, Emily Fox, and Crystal Dunn could move the ball into threatening areas. The back line has been excellent at penetrating the opposition at the Olympics. On Saturday, Japan refused to let anything through. (Data via FIFA)

Today’s Girma Corner isn’t a number at all, but rather an image. This is a heatmap of all the touches Girma made on the ball in the quarterfinal. It’s a gobsmacking amount of ground for a central defender to cover. Girma seemed to be everywhere, and was a primary reason why Japan was never able to spring one of their vaunted counterattacks. Girma simply wouldn’t allow it. Girma dispossessed or outright won the ball nine times against Japan. Considering that the US had 71% of the ball, those dispossessions and turnovers effectively become 16 such interventions, once you adjust for the volume of possession. Toss in 21 possession-adjusted off-ball interventions via pressing, and you have a masterful performance for a center back. We are rapidly approaching the point where there is no longer any debate about who the best center back in the world is. (Data via FIFA)

14

This was the number of line-breaking passes and carries completed by German wingers Klara Bühl and Jule Brand. The two young attackers remain Germany’s most potent attacking threats, and the relationship between Bühl and striker Lea Schüller has developed into a particularly potent one. Bühl and Brand broke lines in their 120-minute slugfest with Canada more than they had against Australia or the US. Germany head coach Horst Hrubesch had both playing more centrally, so that certainly helps boost those numbers. Regardless, Bühl and Brand both found space to drive at the US defense in the inside channels of the pitch during the group stage. If they keep up their line-breaking powers in the rematch, they might have more success than they did the first time. Head coach Emma Hayes surely knows this, and is crossing her fingers that Fox and Trinity Rodman are both healthy and fit enough to put in a real shift on Tuesday.

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Best,

Evan & Eric