xOG at the Olympics, Vol. I, No. III

The third edition of the xOG Olympics newsletter took some time to take a look back at the entire group stage. As the USWNT gears up to face Japan tomorrow morning (kickoff at 9am ET / 6am PT), here are the numbers from the group stage that we think could tell the story of the US’s quarterfinal matchup:

114.3

It’s a good thing when a team can use their passing and ball carrying to break through their opponent’s midfield and defensive lines. It helps them get the ball into dangerous positions and hopefully force the other team into a disorganized defense.

The USWNT’s 114.3 completed line-breaking passes and carries per game came in second in the group stage, behind only Spain. They completed almost 77% of their line-breaking attempts, also second to Spain. It was pretty obvious how much success the US was having while attacking their group stage opponents. Nine goals and nine xG—each the best of the group stage—backs up their ability to pierce their opponents’ defensive shapes. (Data via FIFA)

0.06

That’s the average expected goal value of each shot taken against Japan, essentially tied with the US for second place in that category. Total xG can be a bit noisy at the single-game level; maybe you generate 3 xG but do it on 30 shots. Were any of those chances of high quality? Possibly not. Meanwhile, another team may allow 2 xG on 25 shots, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they turned in a bad defensive performance. Most of those individual chances were of low value, even though the defensive side got peppered.

You can see this in action with the shot map between Spain and Japan. Spain unquestionably outplayed the Nadeshiko, but they couldn’t manage to generate that many chances in really dangerous zones of the penalty box.

Japan held the best international side in the world to 0.09 xG per shot. Their stingy defensive plan will be sure to give the likes of Sophia Smith and Mallory Swanson fits.

On the other hand, the US’s 0.15 xG per shot is the best of the tournament so far. Unstoppable force, meet immovable object.

89%

Taking a quick break from Girma Corner to report on Emily Sonnett’s line-breaking acumen. Sonnett was taken to France for her incredibly versatile defensive skillset. She can play in central defense, defensive midfield, and even at fullback if Emma Hayes needs to break glass in case of emergency. She is an elite positional defender, covering space off the ball so that she doesn’t even need to attempt a tackle; few passes are coming into her zone.

But she has been just as effective in possession. Across 154 normal-time minutes in the group stage, Sonnett attempted 47 passes or carries that tried to break the opposition lines. She completed 42 of them. This is an outstanding figure for a center back, especially since line-breaking passes and carries are always intended to move the ball forward, rather than backward or sideways, which is where center backs can really pad their passing percentages. Sonnett has tried to get into the opponent’s kitchen, and has succeeded. With Tierna Davidson a question mark for the quarterfinal, Sonnett’s two-way excellence will be even more critical for the Americans to get past Japan.

(Girma, by the way, has been no slouch, going 29-for-35 on line-breaking passes and carries for an 83% completion rate. These center backs are cooking.)

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We’ll be doing another live watch-along for the USA-Japan quarterfinal tomorrow (Saturday) for our paid Patreon subscribers. The last one was a ton of fun; you won’t want to miss it.

Hope to see you all tomorrow!

Best,

Evan & Eric