xOG at the Olympics, Vol. I, No. II

xOG At The Olympics, Vol. I, No. II

The second edition of the Expected Own Goals newsletter is in! A wild second round of the group stage saw 11 goals scored in Australia’s defeat of Zambia, an at-the-death golazo to get Japan past Brazil, and a past-the-death keeper spill to give Canada the win over a stunned France.

But what we all really care about is the 4-1 shellacking the USWNT delivered to Germany. What were the numbers that mattered?

6

That’s how many years it’s been since the US delivered such a big result against a team ranked in FIFA’s top 10. The last time was an August 2018 win in a friendly with Brazil; yesterday’s victory came against a top-5 side in a major tournament. As far as major tourney performances go, the US hadn’t turned in a result like yesterday’s against a top-10 side since the 2015 Women’s World Cup final—more than nine years ago. The worries about the US’s ability to score grow sillier and sillier by the day.

37%

FIFA started publishing statistical reports for games at major tournaments back in 2022 for the men’s World Cup. The reports for last year’s Women’s World Cup were treasure troves of information about where and how players moved on the field, much of which hadn’t been available to the public before. The real breakthrough the reports offered were tracking data to measure players’ production when they weren’t on the ball, something most previous soccer data couldn’t capture.

A key way of showing players’ skill defending off the ball is through pressing. If a player can regularly force an opponent to lose the ball by closing them down without having to go in for a tackle, that’s good pressing.

The US pressed Germany 49 times in the attacking half. They forced a dispossession—a “forced turnover”—on 18 of those pressures, good for the above 37% pressure efficiency figure. That’s roughly average for a team in a major tournament. Meanwhile, Germany pressured the US 81 times in the attacking half, but only managed to force a dispossession on 26% of those pressures.

14.8

I’m starting to think that one of these will be about Naomi Girma every time. The best center backs lose the ball once every 10-12 touches. Girma blew that ratio out of the water against Zambia with one lost ball per 18 touches. Germany is light years better than Zambia, and kept up the high pressure on the US back line, but Girma still completed 96% of her passes and it took almost 15 touches before she lost the ball, on average. The US’s success flows through Girma; if she can keep the ball as well as she has, the US will continue to find success.

3.7

That’s how much xG Australia has surrendered across two games. Only Zambia and Nigeria have coughed up more. Head coach Emma Hayes will rotate heavily to keep her starters fresh, knowing she only needs one point to win the group. But boy oh boy, with the way Alanna Kennedy, Clare Hunt, Katrina Gorry, and Steph Catley have been playing, the temptation to run up the score will be strong.

6

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On to Australia and the knockout stage!

Best,

Evan & Eric